Support for the actual strikes, as well as for marches and demonstrations without strikes, has been strong. Still, the time will come when some who do not feel themselves directly affected by the cuts will hesitate to give up another day’s pay. Nonetheless, as the RMT strike in London proved, one union in one industry can paralyze a city, and the cuts will shame the leadership of other unions into action. The hard left will make some gains in membership in the process, but the well-known pattern is that workers turn first to their trade unions and then to the established workers’ parties in a time of economic crisis. The parties of the Second International do, however, find themselves in a compromised position. So-called “Socialist” parties are implementing the austerity programs in Greece and Spain, and the Labour Party in the UK had already worked out a program of cuts before its recent electoral defeat. Circumstances would seem to favor parties with more radical programs to offer. Against the “Socialists” in Greece, the Greek section of the CWI campaigns with the slogans “Don’t Pay the Debt,” “Nationalize the Banks,” and “Tax the Rich.”
The protestors in Europe are conscious of their working-class identity. In the USA, the most successful protest movement, the Tea Party, defends those who imagine themselves to be “middle class” (see earlier blogs for discussion of this largely American fantasy), and I am fairly certain that this formation will assure victory in the November 2010 elections for the Republicans, possibly including control of the Senate as well as the House of Representatives. The American version of the European austerity programs is being implemented unevenly and at the state-level, but these cuts should assure a double-dip recession. At this critical moment, there is to be an appeal to the hearts and minds of working people, including those in the Tea Party, with a mass demonstration for jobs and peace in Washington, D.C. on October 2. Just as the European demonstrations and strikes were in part a show of strength by the weakened trade unions in those countries, the UAW and RainbowPush organized this event, with a preview event in Detroit in August, to show that they are still relevant to the lives of the working class. With AFL-CIO and NAACP support, and with the participation of the American Left, the event will be too large to ignore. Unfortunately, the Democrats will try to high-jack this event, participating in what should be seen as a protest against their own policies as the party in power. I have not heard whether Obama will speak.
All in all, it is still early days. The CWI is calling for protests that become multi-national in scope. The large protest in Brussels did include delegations from several European countries, and, with the European Central Bank and the IMF as the major players in the austerity programs, it is impossible not to see the crisis as encompassing many countries. A small event in solidarity with the Europeans was held at the Massachusetts State House yesterday with Socialist Alternative, the Socialist Party, and the IWW participating.
It is also early days in the economic crisis. Austerity measures will make it worse. The most basic rule of Keynesian economics says that you don’t cut in a recession. Europe and the states are doing that. American economists watch the consumer confidence number that the University of Michigan produces monthly. That number will continue to fall. The capitalist confidence number will continue to fall too--that’s called the Dow-Jones Industrial Average! Robert Prechter was interviewed by Maria Bartiromo on CNBC a couple of days ago. He said that technical analysis based on the Elliott Wave Theory forecasts the Dow falling to 1,000. Bartiromo struggled desperately to keep a straight face, and finally failed in the effort. Well, they laughed at the Wright Brothers. . . .
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